LA Times Festival of Books. People Power: The Rise of a New Middle East

One of my annual pilgrimages is to the LA Times Festival of Books.  This year it was moved from UCLA to the USC campus -- I wasn't that thrilled about it though I knew there were certain advantages to it being at USC.  For Saturday, I decided to take the bus down to USC (an advantage versus UCLA).  Not a bad way to go about it.  When I got to the ticket booth at a little after 8 a.m., I was shocked to find that there were less than 20 people in line.  At UCLA, when arriving around 8 a.m. on Saturday there would be a couple hundred folks in line.  When 9 a.m. hit, I suspect there were 50-60 folks in line.  Luckily, there wasn't the normal line, because getting tickets was like pulling teeth, painful.  There were probably half as many folks helping with tickets and the process was extremely slow.

Anyways, the first panel I went to was called People Power:  The Rise of a New Middle East.  The following biographies are stolen from the LA Times: 

Reza Aslan (moderator):  Aslan, an acclaimed writer and scholar, is a contributing editor at the Daily Beast.  His first book, 'No god but God' has been translated into 13 languages.  Aslan's most recent book is 'Tablet & Pen:  Literary Landscapes from the Modern Middle East,' an all-encompassing anthology of Middle Eastern writings.

Laurie Brand:  Brand is a professor and director of the School of International Relations at USC.  She specializes in Middle East international relations and inter-Arab politics.  Brand is the author of 'Citizens Abroad:  States and Migration in the Middle East and North Africa.'

Tom Hayden:  Hayden is an expert on the '60s era and its legacy.  He is the author of 17 books, including 'Writings for a Democratic Society' and 'The Long Sixties:  From 1960 to Barack Obama.' Hayden continues to write for the Nation and many other magazines.

Parag Khanna:  Khanna is the author of the newly released 'How to Run the World.'  He directs the Global Governance Initiative in the American Strategy Program of the New America Foundation.  Born in India, Khanna was raised in the United Arab Emirates, the U.S. and Germany.  He is completing his PhD at the London School of Economics.

Here are some of my notes from the panel, hardly perfect.

Laurie Brand.  Quoted a Tunisian poet, "If the day comes when people choose life, fate must respond."  There is a belief that Muslims just accept their fate.  These developments in the Middle East/North Africa will get rid of this fatalism.  Arabism is not dead.  Similar symbols were/are being used:  various national flags, slogans across nations.  We are seeing a mix of Arabism and Nationalism.  Though the youth movement is important, we shouldn't over-emphasize social networks such as Twitter and Facebook, as workers were also largely involved.  We should also not over-emphasize the influence of non-violent Western activists.

Obama is constrained by the current situation.  He isn't doing anything right on human rights.  We were using Egypt to play a security role for us with Israel.  Egypt won't play this role anymore.  US is trying to get Bahrain to tone down its crack down.  We are having issues with Saudi Arabia.  We don't have as much leverage as we think.  Obama is having to deal with the constrains presented him versus what is good or bad.

The Muslim Brotherhood has said it'll run in districts, but not in the national campaign.  It isn't really clear what they want.  When other parties form, will they still have sway?  Not sure how it will play out.

Porag Khanna.  Washington DC is behind the curve in understanding what is happening in the Middle East.  They are not understanding the people.  The media is also not understanding, unable to understand the various religious, ethnic and generational differences.  Arab League went against Libya/Gaddafi though this was probably driven by horse trading.  Al-Jazeera deserves credit for highlighting corruption.  Youth want a proper government.  It is a great thing that government officials are constantly having to resign, it shows that the people want change and not just a new face from the old regime. 

Obama's dealings with Israel and Palestine are worse than Bush.  We've prohibited regional organizations in the Middle East, which results in us being a global cop.  Obama should support a security organization in the Middle East.  We need to stop Saudi Arabia from getting involved with other countries.  Obama has no vision.

Feels we should assassinate Gaddafi.  We should support the rebels and not fear Al-Qaeda.  Libya may end up being a divided country.

It is unlikely we'll have an uprising in Saudi Arabia.  Dispersed population.  Very conservative.  Money can launch programs that can be considered either bribes or public policy.

Tom Hayden.  The Freedom Ride was 50 years ago this week.  It was led by young people who could not take the future that was presented to them.  Robert Kennedy asked the Freedom Riders to call off their ride to prevent civil disorder.  The Youth said no and that they'd already signed their last will and testament.  There is a spiritual awakening when you put death aside.

The military establishment is facing its own shock and awe regarding the Middle East.  Our interests were stable dictators, curbing radical Islam, protecting Israel, ignoring Palestine, securing bi-lateral military agreements, controlling oil.  The US is still trying to pursue this and put humpty dumpty back together again. 

We need to consider economic interests.  The owner of the LA Times negotiated a deal to get natural gas for Israel from Egypt.  Very favorable terms.  The pipeline has been bombed multiple times now.  Israel looking for other sources or a military option.  Shouldn't the LA Times ask its owner why he negotiated this deal.

There is nothing unique about negotiating with those who are violent against you (Israel and Hammas).  Egypt will be more pro-Palestinian.  It is important not to avoid the inevitable and holding to positions that are not tenable.