Joe Cirincione. Cirincione is president of Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation. He is the author of the new book "Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late," "Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapopns" and "Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats." He is a member of Secretary of State John Kerry's International Security Advisory Board and the Council on Foreign Relations.
Jerrold Green. Green is president and CEO of the Pacific Council on International Policy and research professor of communications and business at USC. As a Middle East specialist, his expertise includes Iranian politics, U.S. Middle East policy, inter-Arab relations and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Greg Treverton. Greg Treverton directs the RAND Corporation's Center for Global Risk and Security. He was the director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center and associate dean of the Pardee RAND Graduate School.
The following are my notes on the conversation. Please forgive errors or missing key facts/details.
Jerrold Green. What he fears: 2020 report on Los Angeles. Homeless. Nuclear proliferation. Environmental problems. Human rights. Water.
Iran. Greater threat comes from those who oppose the deal. If it fails, at least an effort was made. Iran wants to be part of the world.
President Obama has done certain things well. There are things he hasn’t done well. Pivot to Asia was badly handled. Syria was not handled well. Egypt is problematic, but no good choices. Palestine/Israel: a tragedy, but can’t fault John Kerry for trying. Obama has done well with Mexico. If Iran succeeds, it will trump everything else.
Joe Crincione. What he fears: nuclear weapons. Climate change. In some ways, we’re in a better situation. Just two problem countries: N. Korea and Iran. Something wrong could happen. Most dangerous country in the world: Pakistan. Courting disaster.
Iran. We might be reaching a solution. July 20th, we’ll have an Iran deal. Even if they go for a weapon, we’ll have time to react. The president of Iran was asked why not deal with all the U.S.-Iran issues. He replied, “The weight is too much for the table. We need to take on issues one at a time.”
Both countries have an interest to 1.) stabilize Iraq 2.) Afghanistan 3.) prevent Al Qaida in Syria. Iran could take off if they had good relations with the U.S. They could become the 10th largest economy in the world.
Give President Obama some slack due to what he inherited. Americans don’t wish to sacrifice more lives, provide more money and our international goodwill is no longer there.
Greg Treverton. He was once told that 9/11 was a 3 while the Cuban Missile Crisis was an 8. That person was right. He is most concerned about Asia. He isn’t sure what is going on in China. Growth is going down. Japan is nervous about China. Japan is the most indebted country. There is a serious chance of collapse.
Iran isn’t getting out of the enrichment business. We need to act in our own interest versus the interest of our allies in the region. A deal is good on its own terms. It wouldn’t impact how we deal with North Korea. It would stop Saudi Arabia from making a nuclear weapon. North Korea is more of a nuisance. Pakistan is more worrisome. There are lots of sources of tension that could cause turmoil in Pakistan.
He gives the Administration a mixed grade. Sympathetic as America doesn’t want another war. Too much time spent on Israel/Palestine. More lenient on Syria. There aren’t many options that the American people would approve. Arab Spring went poof, but that wasn’t up to the US. You can’t make people embrace democracy.
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