So I'm no expert on horse racing -- though I do go to the races at Santa Anita and gone to two Breeders' Cups so I do have some knowledge of racing -- but here's my random blog on California Chrome and the Dubai World Cup.
California went from the 11 position out of a field of 12. His competition includes some well known horses in America such as Hoppertunity, Frosted, Mshawish, Keen Ice and Candy Boy. Now why in the world would Candy Boy run in this race after a year off is a little beyond me. Why wouldn't they have prepped this horse? Oh well, I'm not a trainer or owner.
The race started with Keen Ice (#1) not being able to hold position and quickly falling to the rear. (I guess beating a tired American Pharoah will be this horse's single claim to fame -- just watch, Keen Ice wins the 2016 Breeders' Cup, oops!) The race settled with Mshawish (#2) in the lead with Special Fighter (#5) second and California Chrome third and three wide. The 3 horses were within a length of each other. One could tell that Victor Espinoza wanted California Chrome in his standard position of 2nd as he was pushing him to go from the gate, but Mshawish and Special Fight wouldn't have anything to do with that. This was contrary to the jockeys for Frosted (#9) and Hoppertunity (#10) who appeared to let their horses do their thing from the gate. Frosted started in the middle of the pack, 2 wide, while Hoppertunity started in the rear as usual.
The lead horses largely kept their positions in the backstretch though near the final turn Mubtaahij (#4) on the rail poked ahead of California Chrome who at this point was 4 wide. Also, backtracking a bit, as the first turn ended Hoppertunity started to make a run from the rear, gradually passing horse after horse.
As they went around the final turn, if one looks closely at the video, you can see California Chrome's saddle starting to slip -- as has been widely reported.
The final turn, of course, is where we know if California Chrome is in top shape or not, because this is where he's supposed to start kicking. And kick he did as he started to press the 3 horses in front of him. At the same time, Frosted was having to go 5 wide. Hoppertunity just kept on passing horses.
In the final stretch, Frosted was done. California Chrome whipped around the final turn and took the lead by a nose. Special Fighter was the first who couldn't keep pace with California Chrome. Then Mshawish faded into the pack. Mubtaahij didn't so much fade as he just got left behind. He was able to keep himself ahead of the rest of the pack though Hoppertunity made a race of it as he continued his surge that started at the the end of the first turn.
You could tell that Victor Espinoza pushed California Chrome down the stretch and only let up when there were maybe 10 - 20 meters to go. There wasn't going to be any getting caught from the rear. If Espinoza had kept pushing, California Chrome might have won by another 1/2 length.
My thoughts:
1. California Chrome looked really hot as he approached the starting gate. Who can blame him? I wonder how hot it was in Dubai at the time. Weather.com says the high of the day was 90. I have to suspect it was in the mid-80s to start the race.
2. California Chrome didn't get the spot he loves, which is the second spot, about a length behind. I think that is the spot Espinoza was gunning for, but it didn't open up so he had to go 3 wide.
3. California Chrome had that kick in the stretch that was there for the 2014 Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby, but seemed to disappear in the 2014 Breeders' Cup and 2015 Dubai World Cup.
4. Now on to the Breeders' Cup 2016. I say American Pharoah's connections should consider bringing him out of retirement. Have him do a prep race in July. A Grade I race in September. Victor Espinoza would be in trouble. Which horse would he ride? This would be a case of a no-win situation for him, because one set of fans would be very angry with him.
At this point, what other horse can possibly challenge California Chrome in the Classic? I suppose Beholder. Unfortunately, the one horse that could, Shared Belief, had an unfortunate situation hit that resulted in his death. Hoppertunity can't possibly beat a solid California Chrome. The horse has already had two chances this year. I think Hoppertunity would need a situation like Bayern 2014 taking out half the field or California Chrome just not firing. I don't know the situation, but maybe Firing Line could do it. Firing Line challenged American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby. I think the horse just didn't like the mud in the Preakness. I doubt any of the current 3 year olds could challenge a 5 year old California Chrome, but we'll have to see during the Triple Crown races. Wouldn't it be great to see California Chrome, Beholder and American Pharoah fighting it out in the stretch in Santa Anita?
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